Launching into the next decade

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johu
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Launching into the next decade

Post by johu »

I just tuned into a great speech at Chaos Communication Congress about data analysis (how good are German trains really?)
The most amazing part of it was the speakers (David Kriesel) ending words.
I think this very much applies to us here concerning the misinformation that is currently spread about electric mobility and renewable energy.

Here is the transcribed German original:
Das hier ist der letzte Vortrag, den ich in diesem Jahrzehnt halten werde. Ich lasse euch jetzt mal ein paar Sekunden in Ruhe und wünsche mir, dass jeder kurz darüber nachdenkt, was für ihn in diesem Jahrzehnt die maßgebliche gesellschaftliche Entwicklung war…
Für mich ist es der Aufstieg der Empörten und damit meine ich ausdrücklich jede politische Richtung. Ich habe in diesem Jahrzehnt tausendmal an jeder Ecke gehört wie wichtig heutzutage technische, naturwissenschaftliche und analytische Skills seien - angeblich - mit anderen Worten: Rationalität. Auf der anderen Seite aber reicht das heute im öffentlichen Diskurs als Totschlagargument wenn jemand empört ist. Ich finde das paradox, Empörung ist das Gegenteil von Rationalität. Man man kann nicht beides gleichzeitig propagieren und ich möchte anregen, dass wir für das jetzt kommende Jahrzehnt zu einer Kultur finden, in der es ungern gesehen wird einfach nur alles mögliche anzuprangern und in der es ganz umgekehrt bewundert wird, wenn man sich die Datenlage anguckt und sie sich gegenseitig präsentiert mit seinem Kontrahenten und sich dann zusammen setzt. Und wer soll das starten wenn nicht wir hier?
Verlassen wir uns nicht auf die Medien denn die Leben von Aufruhr, auch wenn es positive Gegenbeispiele gibt. Verlassen wir uns nicht auf irgendwelche Stars, die Leben von Likes und die kriegt man am besten durch Zuspitzung. In der Regel sind die Teil des Problems. Verlassen wir uns nicht auf Politiker, die achten wegen der Shitstorm Kultur nur noch darauf, bis zur nächsten Wahl nicht anzuecken und zu viele von denen haben ohnehin niemals außerhalb der Politik gearbeitet, was soll da schon kommen?
Und das ist der Grund warum ich das hier mache, ich versuche euch zu inspirieren eure eigenen Analysen zu strittigen Themen anzustellen. In meinen letzten beiden Vorträgen hier habt ihr ein paar Instinkte davon bekommen wie das geht und ich hoffe, ich habe euch bewiesen dass das absolut keine Raketenwissenschaft ist.
Ich frage noch mal: wer soll das machen wenn nicht wir hier. Wenn wir es gemeinsam schaffen das wenigstens Manche, die heute echt nichts besseres zu tun haben, als sich nicht zu Empören, im nächsten Jahrzehnt zu engagierten Analyse gehen und dabei auch anerkennen, wenn was rauskommt dass sie vorher nicht gedacht hätten, dann haben wir gesellschaftlich unglaublich viel gewonnenen.
Hier stehe ich in einem Saal mit 5000 Leuten voll belegt da sitzen sie noch neben der Tribüne.
Wenn 5000 Leute sich am Samstagabend zwischen Weihnachten und Silvester hier hinsetzen, also da wo die allermeisten Menschen einfach gar nichts tun und sich die Flasche Wein an den Hals anschließen. Und warum tun die 5000 Leute das? Um einen Statistik Vortrag zu hören! Ja das gibt mir Hoffnung ich werde glücklich heimfahren da kann die Bahn mit mir machen was sie will und ich bedanke mich, dass ihr hier wart und wünsche euch ein schönes neues Jahrzehnt!
And the google-assisted translation (sorry for the laziness):
This is the last lecture I will give in this decade. I will now leave you alone for a few seconds and hope that everyone thinks briefly about what has been the decisive social development for him in this decade ...
For me it is the rise of the outraged and I mean expressly every political direction. I have heard a thousand times around every corner in this decade how important technical, scientific and analytical skills are today - supposedly - in other words: rationality. On the other hand, in public discourse this is enough as a thought-terminating cliché when someone is outraged. I find that paradoxical, indignation is the opposite of rationality. You cannot propagate both at the same time and I would like to suggest that for the coming decade we will find a culture in which it is looked down upon to simply denounce all sorts of things but in which it is admired when you look at the data situation and present it to your opponent and then sit down together. And who should start that if not us here?
Let us not rely on the media for it lives of turmoil, even if there are positive counterexamples. Let's not rely on any stars, they live of “likes” and the best way to get them is to get worse. They are usually part of the problem. Let us not rely on politicians who, because of the Shitstorm culture, only take care not to offend until the next election and too many of them have never worked outside of politics anyway, what can we expect?
And that's why I'm doing this, I'm trying to inspire you to do your own analysis on controversial issues. In my last two lectures here you got a few instincts of how to do it and I hope I have proven to you that this is absolutely not rocket science.
I ask again: who should do that if not us here? If we can do it together, at least some people who really have nothing better to do today than to be outraged will go to dedicated analysis in the next decade and also recognize, if what comes out is not they thought beforehand, then we have made enourmous social progress.
Here I am in a hall with 5000 people fully occupied, some are still sitting next to the grandstand.
When 5000 people sit here on Saturday evening between Christmas and New Year's Eve, i.e. where most people simply don't do anything and the bottle of wine clings to their necks. And why do the 5000 people do that? To hear a statistics lecture! Yes that gives me hope I will drive home happily, Deutsch Bahn can do what it wants with me and I thank you for being here and wish you a happy new decade!
I hope in this decade we can solve one of the biggest challenges ever faced. Say it in German: have a good slide into 2020 :)

EDIT: the original source:
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by arber333 »

Funny thing, 500bc ancient Greek philosophers valued much of the same dialogue and argument points.
So after centuries of pleasure wording and assertions (which is what the media, commercials and movie stars do) we are again arriving to some of the same conclusions they had. If we use our inteligence and connect together, on common issues those politicians you mention will have to put more effort to pleasing us. Which in turn will cause them to grow up in inteligence and experience, where they are lacking now...

P.S I actually like german trains much. I frequently use the fast one from Frankfurt to Koln :).
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by johu »

Yeah cannot be repeated frequently enough. David Kriesel as a data scientist gives it some actual weight.
I like the trains also, I've substituted pretty much all long distance driving by trains. Just sometimes you need to be very fault-tolerant ;)

Köln, in his analysis, was one of the stations with the largest delays :)
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by arber333 »

johu wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:15 am Yeah cannot be repeated frequently enough. David Kriesel as a data scientist gives it some actual weight.
I like the trains also, I've substituted pretty much all long distance driving by trains. Just sometimes you need to be very fault-tolerant ;)

Köln, in his analysis, was one of the stations with the largest delays :)
Yes, my boss missed a flight back home because of some accident or work on the tracks.
Whatever the problems i just love to ride at 300km/h :). Last time i went from Venice to Rome by Italian express. Beats the flight anytime. I got nice rest on the train, whilst to get on the flight i would have to get up 2 hours earlier and get hassled by airport security. And both train from the airport and express train from Venice arrived to Roma Termini at the same time. Go figure....
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by Kevin Sharpe »

This is a personal post and I disclaim all responsibility for any loss or damage which any person may suffer from reliance on the information and material in this post or any opinion, conclusion or recommendation in the information and material.
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by johu »

Good one :)
Edit: I said No to contracting for the next 6 months
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by Emyr »

arber333 wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:53 pm Yes, my boss missed a flight back home because of some accident or work on the tracks.
One of my favourite Lufthansa experiences has been the third time I visited Nürnberg for their annual bike polo tournament.

There is no direct flight from Manchester, so our choices are via Frankfurt or via München (from which the flight to Nürnberg is a nice hop on a Bombardier CRJ which is scheduled to take 45 minutes, but that includes about 15 minutes taxiing). Lufthansa offers an alternative to some of its flights, that great innovation the train.

Lufthansa reserves the smaller section at the end of the ICE 1st class quiet carriage and allows this option to be booked as if it were a plane. Nürnberg Hauptbahnhof has IATA code ZAQ, and is much easier to travel to than the airport.
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by johu »

Thought I'd do some fact checking of my own :)

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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by Jack Bauer »

Everyone needs to watch this video. Sadly PooTube will keep promoting the clickbait titles like "The ugly truth about evs"....
I'm going to need a hacksaw
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Re: Launching into the next decade

Post by bobby_come_lately »

Very good indeed. Makes the point in stark fashion.

Hello Emyr btw - fellow Manc (well, adopted one) here.
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